Key takeaways:

USMCA continues to protect North American auto trade: Despite broader tariff disputes, USMCA remains in force until 2036, limiting the immediate impact of higher tariffs on qualifying vehicles and parts.
Canadian vehicle production cannot be quickly replaced: Automakers rely heavily on Canadian facilities, and shifting production to the US would require billions of dollars in investment and years of capacity expansion.
Supply chain shifts could boost US steel demand: A gradual relocation of vehicle and parts production to the US would increase demand for automotive-grade steel, particularly cold-rolled, galvanized sheet and special bar quality steel.
USMCA limits the immediate impact of new tariffs
Even with the recent tariff disputes and the breakdown of broader US-Canada negotiations, the core automotive provisions of USMCA remain in force until 2036, subject to annual reviews.

Vehicles and parts that satisfy USMCA’s rules of origin remain eligible for preferential treatment, including the tariff-free automotive trade framework that existed under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), with eligibility requirements tightened under USMCA.

“In the short term, imports from Canada to the U.S. will not be reduced significantly as manufacturers will absorb the additional costs,” Sam Fiorani, vice president, global vehicle forecasting, AutoForecast Solutions, Chester Springs, Pennsylvania, said Tuesday August 25.

“With USMCA still in effect, the costs on an imported vehicle will not rise 50%, but aspects of the vehicle could be hit by higher prices,” Fiorani said.

The impact will vary by each automaker’s supply chain arrangements for Canadian-manufactured vehicles.

Canada’s automotive exports remain heavily dependent on the US
All of Canada’s automakers – General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, Honda, and Toyota – also have production in the US.

US-Canada trade relations are paramount, given that 90.6% of autos manufactured in Canada are exported, with 9.4% representing domestic Canadian consumption, according to the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association (CVMA).

The vast majority of Canada’s vehicle exports – 92% – go to the US.

Canada produced 1.29 million vehicles in 2024 and exported 1.17 million, with about 1.1-1.2 million shipped to the US, according to CVMA. By contrast, US vehicle production has averaged 10-11 million vehicles annually in recent years.

“Models like the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V are also sourced from plants in the US, and increased output in Kentucky or Indiana could offset some of the volume currently being imported from Canada,” Fiorani said. “But there is no room to offset the hundreds of thousands of vehicles currently coming across the border.”

“GM and Ford use plants in Ontario to supplement US production, but Stellantis’ production in Windsor [Ontario] has no equivalent anywhere else in the world,” Fiorani said.

Higher tariffs could accelerate North American supply chain shifts
“If a 50% tariff on imported autos sticks, it could [in time] essentially end auto imports from Canada to the US,” said Bill Rinna, vice president, Americas at GlobalData Automotive in Farmington, Michigan, on Tuesday August 25.

“Tariff pressure has already contributed to Canadian imports falling, with the Canada-sourced share of US sales falling to 4% in the first half of 2026, compared to 7% for the full-year 2024 and prior to the tariffs,” Rinna said. “We would expect to see continued shifting of Canadian production to the US over time to limit the tariff exposure.”

“Some manufacturers – notably Honda and Toyota – run into capacity constraints that would require investment and time to increase,” Rinna said. “And with that shift – compounded by the tariff impact of more parts having to potentially cross the border – we would expect the supply chain to follow. So inevitably, this would ultimately increase steel usage by US domestic automakers and their suppliers.”

The big automotive exposures are in cold-rolled and galvanized sheet, where the auto sector represents about 40% of overall US sheet product, as well as special bar quality steel, where automotive represents 40-50% of the market, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Moving production to the US would require significant investment
“Moving capacity from Canada to the US will cost billions in investment from manufacturers and suppliers,” said Fiorani. “For the most part, this will take years to find the capacity and build the assembly lines, especially for Toyota, Honda, and Stellantis.”

“Shifting significant production from Canada to the U.S. will further sour the opinion [in Canada] of the US market, reducing sales of US products in Canada and opening that market up to more imports,” Fiorani said.

“Canada is already looking away from the US for trade, and the new tariffs will add to this distaste for their neighbor to the south,” Fiorani said. “Keeping the pressure on with heavy tariffs over an extended period of time will reduce production in Canada but will not add all of the lost capacity in the US, as prices will increase and demand will soften, especially for exports.”

Long-term impact on jobs and manufacturing capacity remains uncertain
“Marginally higher production volume will require more steel, but not enough to fire up large amounts of new [US] capacity,” Fiorani said. “And the new production in the US is unlikely to add many assembly line or supplier jobs, as the costs will need to be offset by automation.”

GM makes the Chevrolet Silverado 1500 and the Chevrolet Silverado HD pickup in Oshawa, Ontario, according to CarGurus.

Stellantis makes the Chrysler Pacifica, the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid, and the Chrysler Voyager and Grand Caravan derivatives in Windsor, Ontario.

Toyota makes the Lexus RX and Lexus NX in Cambridge, Ontario, and the Toyota RAV4 and the Toyota RAV4 Hybrid in Woodstock, Ontario.

Honda makes the Honda Civic and the Honda CR-V, including hybrid versions, in Alliston, Ontario.

Ford’s Canadian footprint has been in transition, with its Oakville facility in Ontario being repurposed for truck production.

From: Fastmarkets, 10 SEPT 2026.